Open Letter to the Members of the US Senate and the House of Representatives
February 14, 2022
Once again - thank you very much for the opportunity and time taken to meet with us last week. We are especially grateful for the efforts made by your team in facilitating these consultations, during an alarming and dramatic time for Europe and for the global peace and security. Nevertheless, we remain especially grateful for the efforts made by you and your team in containing and mitigating an alarming and dramatic turn of events in Europe.
We consider that our group lead by ambassador Andrei Muraru had an exceptional and historic opportunity to make a constructive exchange of ideas with some of your colleagues and explore new and more viable ways to manage, cultivate and better the Romanian American strategic relationship. Finally, we came prepared to contribute with new ideas to alleviate the current crisis in Ukraine.
Following our discussions in Washington, we would like to present a scenario of assessment of what needs to be done to prevent the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops and, subsequently, to ensure a critical defensive position and a NATO Black Sea front to prevent an imminent geopolitical calamity with the epicenter area of Central Eastern Europe and implicitly Romania.
Our calculations and scenario are based on real data, expert opinions on Moscow's Stalinist culture and Russian military behavior, as well as an analysis of President Putin's personality and behavior. The evidence is unequivocal and convincing, all of which lead to the same conclusion.
The current positioning of Russian troops and military maneuvers in Belarus and around Ukraine's eastern border represent in many ways a total failure of negotiations between the US, German and French counterparts, and Putin's team. In a bizarre way it actually paved ten road to a violent conflict and invasion with serious and long-lasting repercussions. Ukraine has suffered enormously and quite a bit in the last century from the Soviets and the Russians, and today it is facing its virtual annihilation as an independent and sovereign state. Europe these days will soon witness acts of genocide and a major refugee crisis that will greatly eclipse the one caused by the Slobodan Milosevic Balkan War of the 1990s. Millions of Europeans will be affected by this reckless, primitive, and malignant invasion.
Context and Realities
“A View to a Kill”
It is very likely that by the time you read this presentation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be in full swing - with airstrikes (bombings) and missiles coming from inside Belarus and Russian positions combined near the northern and eastern borders of Ukraine. Despite a devastating and unimaginable situation in 2022 (which would take us back in time to World War II), there are still ways to discourage and obstruct a belligerent and aggressive Russia.
Putin is and will remain an assassin, an old and loyal KGB hoodlum with no scruples and character. The Bolshevik running Kremlin today understands only brute force and respects solely equal or superior opponents and competitors. He is and remains reluctant to attack NATO and the United States directly and will never wage an open war with America. Gradually breaking up large territories in Ukraine, after annexing Crimea, his despotic and criminal regime will open wide the Caucasus Region for broader action, using the so-called Pridnestrovian Republic of Moldova (Transnistria) as a fighting arm.
The Pridnestrovian Republic of Moldova is a strategic military enclave (recognized only by Moscow) that already houses thousands of Russian troops, tanks, fighter jets and a huge arsenal of ammunition. Once Ukraine is firmly under Russian control, the "fall" of the Republic of Moldova (a historic Romanian territory of three million inhabitants) will be imminent (several months), probably without a single shot being fired. Moreover, the Russians will completely take over the Ukraine-Budjak region from the Black Sea, thus controlling river navigation between two critical bodies of water, the Danube River to the south and the Dniester River to the north. Such intrusion will impede the navigation and free trade of Romania from the Danube to the Black Sea on the largest and most important navigable arm - Chilia.
Another variable appears in this scenario as well, the Black Sea Snake Island, a territory that today belongs to Ukraine. Located just 30 nautical miles from the Danube Delta and the Romanian Coast, its control becomes critical for both Ukraine and Romania. A former Romanian islet (which was illegally annexed by the Soviet Union in 1949), Snake Island was part of a dispute between Romania and Ukraine between 2004 and 2009, during which Romania challenged the technical definition of the island and, consequently, its effects on the delimitation of exclusive economic zones. Snake Island is an atoll anomaly, a 20%-sized rock in New York's Central Park. The territorial boundaries of the continental shelf around Snake Island were demarcated by the International Court of Justice in 2009, giving Romania almost 80% of the exclusive economic zone in dispute, where some US companies have already been involved in offshore gas drilling.
This atoll is populated today. In February 2007, the rural town called Bile was established in this area, in order to consolidate the status of the island as inhabited and habitable.
The territorial boundaries of the continental shelf around Snake Island, delimited by the International Court of Justice in 2009, in favor of Romania, are relevant today because both Romania and Ukraine can turn this Lilliput Island into a real bastion of American force with extensive expansion to the east. Black Sea. An American brigade as an appropriate military deterrent (missile launchers / Patriot battery, radars / frigate support ship), which will block the Russian naval advance towards a critical part of the Black Sea - Danube and the vital triangle Romania / Ukraine and Moldova. A specialized US Marine Corps, along with a local Ukrainian garrison, will be able to block any possible Russian takeover / invasion of this island by force.
There is credible information about a process to complete the preparation of a Russian blitzkrieg operation (naval and air assault) aimed at taking control of Snake Island and the Dnieper / Dnieper estuary (a critical point linking southern Ukraine with the region Budjak), to create a corridor for Transnistria to the Black Sea, almost completely encircling Ukraine.
What to do?
Improving air and coastal defense in Southeast Europe:
• Rapid redeployment of three advanced European air squadrons as follows:
- an F-16 squadron from Ramstain to CAMPIA TURZII Air Base;
- an F-16 squadron from Aviano to OTP or FETESTI Air Base;
- a British F-15 Squadron at BACAU Air Base.
• Rapid redistribution of three MD PATRIOT batteries from Germany, the Netherlands and Spain (or even from the US if needed), to quickly build a true ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense in the areas: MIHAIL KOGĂLNICEANU base; CERNAVODĂ-FETESTI; OTOPENI.
• Rapid deployment of a THAAD combat unit (properly created) to ensure close protection of the DEVESELU site.
• Transfer to a forward position of two TOMAHAWK naval positions, either by quickly equipping two local warships with MK-41 blocks (and appropriate TOMAHAWK ammunition / missiles) deployed in CONSTANTA Bay and MANGALIA Bay (ships could be Frigate MĂRĂȘEȘTI and another selected from the existing arsenal).
• Alternatively, this measure could be materialized by the transfer from the USA of some existing capacities (which are to be decommissioned in the near future), consisting of two ships equipped for this type of missions, under the Romanian flag. The US Navy could, of course, maintain its operational control until such time as the price of these ships has been paid in full.
This bold, complex, and swift exercise will be perfect in accordance with the provisions of international law (UN Charter, art. 51 on individual and collective self-defense), and will not violate the INF Treaty (even if it no longer works). The move will not create an imbalance of power in the Black Sea area, as Russia has built an impressive arsenal in Crimea since it illegally annexed it in 2014. The exercise could also be convincing, given both proportionality and proportionality. the fact that some redistributions will remain in force only during the tensions induced by the annexation of Crimea.
Dear members of the US Senate and the House of Representatives,
We are fully aware that this letter could be classified as a helpless and irrelevant sigh meant to generate nothing more than misconceptions, unnecessary passions and confusion. Or it could still be relevant, but not good enough to be shared between colleagues in the Security and Defense Committee and Pentagon officials. But if all these theories, assumptions, and scenarios could be or become plausible and at the same time prevent the spread of a devastating war, could you at least take this message to the next level of decision-making? Meanwhile, please always count on our help, support and expertise that may somehow complement the might and wisdom of your leadership in Washington.
We look forward to hearing from you and wish you all the best in all your noble and important endeavors.
God bless America!
God bless Romania!
With respect and gratitude,